No, I wouldn't at all. Probability is only relevant in a vacuum. There is no way both my Lovers are scum, and I find it highly unlikely that even one of them is.
Be that as it may, you're going to have to decide who to trust. Because Judge and I are both vouching for our own Lovers' innocence while scumreading each other's. If any of us are lynched today, Town dies no matter what. Judge/Midnight are the least dangerous play for us right now.
It's easy to cherry-pick when you take my post apart, but I took care to justify my reads also using in-thread content. You may not buy that evidence, but that doesn't make me any less sure of it. Here's the difference between them and you, though: Korosu and Karuta are new. You are not. Not only have you posted more often and more consistently in the past, you've also done a lot more pro-active scumhunting, as opposed to responding directly to questions and read requests. I mean that, aside from answering those call-outs, you've been much stingier with your reads and scumhunting than is typical. If I can't TTGL my way out of this, you can't Princess Bride yours. Post as much QT fluff as you like; you could be making it all up. And I haven't heard an adequate defense of you or Midnight that doesn't include this nebulous content. I did consider that. He could've denied you the information, or insisted you ask in the thread so that it's publicly available. You mean first and only defense, which I also explained. As for SRing you, touché. Only difference is that your experience with mafia games is very far apart from mine. In fact, this is another possible reason for me to have looked up scumhunting tips online, and it's the real one. And? How is that more suspicious and not less so? Oh, so I can't dismiss your maths but you can dismiss my accusations? Of course you were comfortable answering it. It was easy. A Townie was asking you to do something that's not scumhunting. You literally couldn't ask for a better opportunity. That's what that's called. Ah yes, more called shots from the QT. You know what the difference is here? I'm not trying to excuse Korosu and Karuta's behavior using our QTs. I'm excusing it because they're new to the game, and in that context their actions make sense for Town. Yours, in their own context, do not. And let's get one thing straight here: Marushi's plan didn't work. Two Town for one Mafiosi is not a fair trade. Reason being, the fewer of us there are, the closer the Mafia naturally approaches parity. Each Townie lynched matters exponentially more than each Mafiosi. We need our numbers, and I am not going to play slaughtering lamb for a plan that didn't work the first time. I'm pretty sure NEITHER of my Lovers are Town, so our odds are even WORSE now. Why would you not just say so outright, then? Why leave even the slightest chance of ambiguity? You're the one who pushed us to reveal our Lovers, yet you couldn't follow your own example? Why?
I still don't like this. Last time I was convinced to back off a suspect, Marushi died for nothing.
We don't know that. Maybe they're invisible! Maybe they popped in while we weren't looking! ...*sigh* Ok, you have a point.
Listen to me. If Mafia was going to blitz this vote, why hasn't it happened already? In the worst-case scenario, one of Judge and Midnight is Mafia. We lynch them, we take down one and one. I can guarantee you both of my Lovers are not scum, so the best-case scenario of lynching me is we lose two Town. That is not the optimal play.[DOUBLEPOST=1470274037][/DOUBLEPOST]You seem to be under the impression I haven't confirmed my suspicions by voting for them. At one point Midnight stood at Hammer -2 and nobody made a move. That's as sure a confirmation as any I can imagine.
...Really? ._. This is just getting silly
Again, that's assuming you're Town, which I'm not assuming. Ughhhh, this is frustrating. I have to go. Leaving it up to you, Cal.
C'mon Cal, don't do this. We have to be confident, or they'll convince us to vote for ourselves again![DOUBLEPOST=1470255007][/DOUBLEPOST]There aren't enough Town left for us to waffle on this. If another vote starts, they will blitz it. This is crunch time either way. I need you to trust me. I'm not gonna be able to post for several hours, as I'll be taking my Spanish final. So there will be only one active Townie left. If you've sensed nervousness from me, that's why.
Softclaims like that are way too ambiguous. Why not just come out and say it at that point? Especially given your stance on Lover reveals now.
Don't give him room to lie, or he will. It may seem reckless but I promise you I've thought this through; if we lynch Judge and he's tied to a Townie, even with two Maf down that puts us in a difficult spot. It'll be one on two, with more chances to lose than win. We have to move slow but steady.[DOUBLEPOST=1470251728][/DOUBLEPOST]Fuck, not one on two... One on three. I can't math. Point stands though, as there are still plenty of Lover entanglements among us.
Y'know how this game works? Sometimes you have to take risks to win. I could be wrong. I could always be wrong. But the voice telling me I could be wrong could also be trying to save itself at my expense. No more games, no more waiting. We settle this now.
We tried that yesterday; it got innocents killed. You're not weaseling your way out of it this time. This vote is only blitz-susceptible if you two aren't Mafiosi, which I highly doubt at this point. I'm not moving.
I'm as sure as can be that Mafia will be down to 1 after toDay. But 1 is still enough for them to win. I'm inclined to believe Mish is the last piece of the puzzle, but if one of Midny or Judge flips Town I'm obviously going to re-examine my Lovers and figure out which I trust the least. It may in fact be prudent to lynch me at that point; I will gladly go the way of Marushi if it means sealing our win.
Right, so. I'm Lovers with Korosu and Karuta. Based on their posts and a few interactions with them in QTs, I believe they're both Town. I didn't for a long time—I felt their behavior could've swung either way—but I've concluded that they're both just newbtown approaching the thread gingerly because they're not sure how to play. For one, they're more willing to give me reads when it's not the whole thread bearing down on them. And when they do post, they make an effort to speak on current suspicions and not just offer contextless reads, which I respect immensely. Most importantly, I was on the fence about this primarily because I didn't have any better scumreads at the time. But now I do: I believe that both Midnight and Judge are Mafiosi. Several of us have voiced our suspicions of Judge, but been too afraid to follow through. We gave him the benefit of the doubt and Towncleared him when he's never really deserved it this game. The fact of the matter is, most of his posts in early game were speculation, he's only just begun putting his name on Maf reads, and all throughout the game he's been difficult to access. His express reasoning is that he's been QTing up a storm, but that's a perfect excuse for Mafiosi to use while deliberating in their own QT chat. The fact that he's the only voice clearing Midnight, based on evidence none of us can see, is highly suspect. And we have had our suspicions of her as well; again, never enough to capitalize, and the Mafia must have been thankful for that. But the fact remains that they've both been skirting under the radar for too long. But to really drive the point home, let's zoom in on some posts. First Judge: Here we see an early defense of Splodge. Here he asks several questions that would benefit the Mafia to know, like "Can the Town lose D1" and "How many Town can be tied together." Questions better left unsaid for a Townie, but ones that represent the only blind spots in Mafia's intel. This could easily read as Mafia banter, in light of present knowledge. It's easy to defend yourself against somebody you know isn't truly attacking you. Second defense of Splodge here. I find it curious that he scumreads me for playing with my cards close to my chest when he's doing the exact same thing. He also stops to check and make sure all his speculation is not being treated as a scumtell, which really only makes it worse. Here he basically admits to all of his scummy behavior, as well as using confirmation bias on his bus theory to try and dig me a grave. He's also been buddying up to Marushi in his own right, which again smacks of hypocrisy. He uses Marushi's question as a springboard to dive into more speculation and maths, and look busy while not actually saying anything. In this post he drops his suspicion of me, the only person he's ever attempted to case, after he sees the general Town opinion swing my way, when before he seemed ready to drill me into the ground. His suspect list now consists of Al, Cstar, Karuta, Korosu, and Saxima, all of whom are easy scumreads that put up no resistance and won't ruffle feathers. Here he defends Midnight's shifty comment about resolving dilemmas, a comment which in itself looks all the more suspect having seen the flips on these last few lynches. What do these posts mean? How does he know about Saxima's Lovers? Where and when would he have picked that up? In this mysterious QT of his? Maybe I just got lost in the Lover shuffle but this rings awfully suspect right now. And now, Midnight: These posts seem kinda jumpy at the prospect of lurker lynches, like she plans to be one or has a scumbud doing so. I like the one-word defense here. Why indeed; why does it matter to you? Why this late-RVS vote and no others? Several people have pointed this out already, but it bears repeating: Midnight took far too long to answer her own question, and continued to excuse herself... ...here. So gut reads are important, but too hard for Midnight herself to figure out. Hmm. Also note that her townreads are hard and her scumreads are soft; this is textbook safe play. She spends a lot of time picking on lurkers considering her argument against lynching them earlier. If she's not willing to lynch them, what's the point in prodding them? Now, five pages after her initial request, comes a real read list. Take the word "real" with a grain of salt. Remember when I talked about round-table reads and how they're usually ambiguous and unhelpful? I was talking about this post. There isn't a single hard scumread in here, every suspicion is buffered with self-doubt. She's waiting for someone to give her permission to scumread. This vote is expressly not going anywhere, and again, it's picking on a safe target. Ahh, someone has given her permission to be suspicious. Happy day! Even now, she waits to see if other Townies will join the wagon. Yet more waffling. Oh, but her Townread is locked in. Again, the only ones she's willing to cast aspersions on have already been cased by Town. This is where I really began to take notice of Midnight on my first read-through, and I said as much in the thread. She was way too eager to have a Townie she could safely vote for, and she was also way too ambiguous about this "dilemma," waiting until someone else spoke for her to explain... ...here. To me, it sounds like Midnight was linked to two of her scumpals and the whole team was terrified. They were eager to bus Al but not so much to die trying, and so Midnight and Judge found themselves hunting for his other Lover. They got their wish, and we now see the results; Town is on the brink. She then spends two posts goofing off. Bit too nonchalant about this move for my liking. Translation: "No, wait, this is supposed to clear us! Don't go suspecting us for it!" Translation: "Tell me what to say, Town-senpai." As if the first round wasn't bad enough, Midnight actually posts ambiguous reads twice. This recent trend of attempting to de-confirm Cal disturbs me. It makes it seem like the Mafia is targeting her specifically now. This is transparent self-defense, if you take everything else I've highlighted into consideration. More urging Marushi to "solve my dilemma." The rest is current enough that I shouldn't have to link it, but it still pings me in light of everything that's happened. We're just supposed to trust that these two have spent all this time solving the game in secret? I don't buy it. Unless I miss my guess, Al was connected to Midnight so she has no other Lovers besides Judge. Judge could still be hooked to a Townie. So the better vote between the two is... ##Vote: Midnight Star
Yeah unfortunately this is a bit of a stale game with half the players chillin' out on the sidelines. But I'm also not going to have much time to devote to the game tomorrow because I have a test to study for, so I'd appreciate the extra phase time.
Again, I'd like to see how this Day plays out, and hear more from the lurkers. I'm on the fence about my lurker/s and revealing could compromise reads.[DOUBLEPOST=1470182467][/DOUBLEPOST]That second lurker/s should be Lover/s The AC isn't working in my room, I'm really delirious :'D
Wow, I was gonna apologize for not posting 'til now but it's barely been a page. Ughhh, these lover shenanigans are starting to make my head spin. Seems like no matter what we do, we lose strong Town toDay. @Makaze can we get a votal? I need to figure out whose gambit I'm the least nervous about.
Hey I'm supposed to answer the questions here ALSO STOP BEING PSYCHIC >_> Then: Now:
