Mafia [MAFIA] Lovers Mafia [GAME OVER, MAFIA VICTORY]

I thought Nova was doing this to see how you guys would react and judge your reactions to base whether or not you were Mafia.

But now I fear that my concerns about Nova from the beginning have come true. For now I'm going to unvote. I've had suspicions about Nova since the beginning, and he's not thinking as logically anymore. It's almost the nervous and bravado that Al had when he was getting frustrated and extemely nervous. However Judge is showing the same thing. But both of you, at least it would be unlikely for you both to be Mafia together. But you're both acting similarly.

##Unvote

 

C'mon Cal, don't do this. We have to be confident, or they'll convince us to vote for ourselves again![DOUBLEPOST=1470255007][/DOUBLEPOST]There aren't enough Town left for us to waffle on this. If another vote starts, they will blitz it. This is crunch time either way. I need you to trust me.

I'm not gonna be able to post for several hours, as I'll be taking my Spanish final. So there will be only one active Townie left. If you've sensed nervousness from me, that's why.

 

Mafia can't win on their own. They need at least one town vote to help them. My suggestion is that none of town vote until the end of the day when we have decided on a lynch target. That was mafia can't blitz us because the only person who will be voted for by town will be the final lynch target. That said like I've said before IF you are town, mafia currently can blitz us because they only need one wrong town vote.

 

Again, that's assuming you're Town, which I'm not assuming. Ughhhh, this is frustrating.

I have to go. Leaving it up to you, Cal.

 

Well with what I'm suggesting, if it gets to the end and everyone decides on me or Judge for the final lynch then so be it. Then everyone votes for us. But it is bad for town to have just odd votes lying around. All I'm saying is for you to unvote for the time being until as a group we decide who we should lynch.

 

...Really? ._. This is just getting silly

 

Korosu and Karuta haven't been around, neither has Mish. This probably isn't intentional by them but it does seem like they're hiding to wait till the dust settles.

I can't really decide what to do. On one hand, we could lynch Nova because the chances are higher to catch two Mafia, since lynching them have 3 people, and you guys have two. There is a huge chance there is a Mafia in both places though.

Either way if we mislynch we're going to go down, so I think we SHOULD lynch you Nova. If we get two Mafia, there will only be one left and Me, Mish and Midnight can all lynch Judge no problem.

The thing is, us getting two Mafia today require three Mafia to be all lovers. I'm not going to speculate on Makaze's system or anything, but numerically it's hard to believe.

There's just a higher chance of getting two Mafia with you, Nova, then there is with Midnight and Judge, unless Midnight and Judge ARE both Mafia.

I just think if we're going to take a risk, we should be risking to find more, not less. And if Midnight and Judge have both fooled me they've done a good job but from the beginning of the game I've had this sinking feeling that Nova had been fooling us, which now, in the long run, is making me hard to trust him. See, if it was Marushi suggesting this and Nova had died yesterday, this wouldn't be as difficult. Marushi was a confirmed town and I had no doubt about her. I think that we either should have gotten Nova or Midnight yesterday to be safe, and that was probably a mistake I over looked but something I'll remember for the next time.

There are still 3 Mafia, which means someone in Nova's pairs (or Mish) has to be it. But again, statistically speaking I think we should be going for Nova today.




I asked earlier for the Town to make cases on why other people were Mafia, because if you're Town you can narrow down who the Mafia are. So everyone should be making a top three list right now with reasons why, but when I asked earlier no one answered me. Nova, you made a case for Midnight and Judge already, but what about for the third Mafia?

 

Listen to me. If Mafia was going to blitz this vote, why hasn't it happened already? In the worst-case scenario, one of Judge and Midnight is Mafia. We lynch them, we take down one and one. I can guarantee you both of my Lovers are not scum, so the best-case scenario of lynching me is we lose two Town. That is not the optimal play.[DOUBLEPOST=1470274037][/DOUBLEPOST]You seem to be under the impression I haven't confirmed my suspicions by voting for them. At one point Midnight stood at Hammer -2 and nobody made a move. That's as sure a confirmation as any I can imagine.

 

But Korosu, Mish and Karuta haven't been online at all, they can't do a blitz if they're not here period.

 

Was about to take screen caps of their cards, but yeah, this^

Okie dokie, I'm home, I'm fed, and my batteries are recharged. *cracks knuckles* Time to work on my wallpost.

 

We don't know that. Maybe they're invisible! Maybe they popped in while we weren't looking!

...*sigh* Ok, you have a point.

 

The only one who has been "online" (but if not looking at the thread) is Karuta, and if he did it all by himself it would look PRETTY bad.

Also I'm staff so I realized I can see if you're invisible. I'm not trying to use that to call people out but if I did that by accident and you ARE on invisiable, I mean, sorry lol

 

I still don't like this. Last time I was convinced to back off a suspect, Marushi died for nothing.

 

¿QUIEN QUIERE DISECAR UN QUESO SUIZO POST? Yo don't, but half of its gaping holes are directed at me, so I might as well. And a one, and a two, and a... *inhales*

Spoiler: QUESOS MUY RICOS MMMM :q

And how exactly did you reach this conclusion? Based on your QTs, huh? Got it. Remind me to use that one next time I'm suspected for townclearing my lovers-- oh wait, I am being suspected, and I already did use it. Ain't that a coincidence. /sarcasm Seriously though, the odds of you being lovered to two townies like you say are exactly the same as mine.

None of this is indicative of innocence. If anything, it puts them in the same position as Midnight and myself, except they have been waaaaay less active on the main thread.

Far as I remember, the only people how did voice suspicion of me were Splodge (which was a mistake on his part), Marushi and now you.

Surprisingly, I have to agree. I even remarked as much to Midny in private. Not that you'd take my word for it on these comments anyway.

Yep, you're spot o--

... What? I don't know what you mean by this. Are you saying I don't reply when people call me out, or what? I'm pretty sure I was around to address people, going as far back as Splodge's misdirected accusation.

Ahhh, finally some WIFOM. I was beginning to get thirsty. *sips thoughtfully* You see, I am immune to Iocane Powder. No amount of speculation can change that, because as of this moment, my QT with Midny is exactly at 124 posts and counting. Since I can't quote or screencap it all, would you prefer if I just paraphrased the whole thing post by post?

Refer to my second paragraph, way up there^

What you're calling a 'defense' I call 'disagreeing with Cal'. Matter of fact, there was no defensible accusation to begin with. Cal said "this could mean Splodge only has one lover", and I simply replied with "not necessarily".

Ever stopped to consider that this kind of info is also useful for other townies? What about that, if I actually were Mafia, I could've just asked Mak those things by PM and then reported back the findings to the Mafia QT without Town knowing any of it?

You mean first and only defense, which I also explained. As for SRing you, touché. Only difference is that your experience with mafia games is very far apart from mine. In fact, this is another possible reason for me to have looked up scumhunting tips online, and it's the real one.

This is the same link as the last one. Again, not scummy behavior. Like I said, it's supposed to be a scum/nulltell, according to some of the online "pros". I am pleased to announce the Bus Theory™ is still up and running, this time free of any possible tunnel vision side-effects, what with your most recent stunts giving me very plausible evidence to support it. Also, glad you finally acknowledged the buddying I called you out on (more on this later). Thing is, yours happened well before Maru's plan was even conceived, and there was very little wou could go off of coming from her, aside from her usual wallposting.

Nonono, I won't let you dismiss my calculations just like that. Marushi asked me a question, and I felt (somewhat) comfortable enough to answer it. Had I not, it would've meant lying or flat out ignoring her, all of which would be more suspicious than what I did do. Ergo your objection here is null, QED.

I didn't drop suspicion of you. I just dropped my charges to pursue other leads because you were refusing to acknowledge them.

First of all, we had touched on that on the QT before I brought it up, so it didn't come from nowhere. Secondly, didn't the lynches only serve to confirm her reasons for facing said dilemma? Al was Mafia, which means Midny was correct to suspect him while still worrying about taking down potential townies along with his lynch, assuming she is Town. Which you know I do assume. At any rate, I won't defend her any further, she can do it herself if she feels the need to.

Boss, I've been through this: I am one of her lovers. I don't know who the second one was, or even if she had another one. She stopped replying and got eventually modkilled before she had a chance to tell me.

Bonus Round:

Here's the updated love chain, so you don't get lost again:

? <3 Kelly <3 Nova <3 Karuta <3 Cal <3 Cstar <3 Maru <3 Al <3 Midny <3 Judge (me) <3 Sax <3 ? || Splodge <3 Jiku <3 Mish <3 ?

@Calxiyn Your highest-risk, highest-reward guess is correct, btw. The lynch targets that currently hold the biggest chance of taking down two (or three) mafiosi at a time are Nova and Karuta. Kelly/Korosu would also work, but that's the more conservative option (i.e. we don't lose if it's Mafia <3 Mafia or Mafia <3 Town). If the two reds we're looking for aren't found in Nova's lovebed, it means they could've only be found amongst Cal, Midny and Mish, except I TR the first two, and Mish is a coin flip. Also, notice that I chose to leave Mish's second link up for grabs. Bet you can figure out why.

 

As Cal said, a blitz can only happen if all the remaining mafia are online at the same time as if just one of them vote (especially after we've said for town not to vote yet), it would look really obvious. Other than that a blitz wouldn't happen if YOU were mafia as it needs at least one town votes or if me or Judge were mafia. I'm actually think now that Cal is town but in the period she had her vote up, not everyone was online so it's very possible that they couldn't blitz just then due to people not being online. Since you're leaving your vote up, I guess a blitz could still happen during the day if you're town and I expect at least some point before day ends they will have opportunity. If this doesn't happen then I think it makes it likely that EITHER you are mafia or at least one of me and Judge are mafia. Personally as I stand now I think it is more probable that you are mafia but it would be wrong of me to blind myself to the possibility that I could of been fooled so if that happens I will reconsider Judge being mafia.

 

♥ DAY 3: VOTE COUNT 2 ♥​

Midnight Star (1) - Ars Nova

Not voting (6) - Calxiyn, Judge Sunrose, Karuta, Korosu, Midnight Star, Mish​

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 votes to hammer.

Day 3 ends at 12 PM EST/EDT on August 6. There are approximately 48 hours remaining.

 

It's easy to cherry-pick when you take my post apart, but I took care to justify my reads also using in-thread content. You may not buy that evidence, but that doesn't make me any less sure of it.

Here's the difference between them and you, though: Korosu and Karuta are new. You are not. Not only have you posted more often and more consistently in the past, you've also done a lot more pro-active scumhunting, as opposed to responding directly to questions and read requests.

I mean that, aside from answering those call-outs, you've been much stingier with your reads and scumhunting than is typical.

If I can't TTGL my way out of this, you can't Princess Bride yours. Post as much QT fluff as you like; you could be making it all up. And I haven't heard an adequate defense of you or Midnight that doesn't include this nebulous content.

I did consider that. He could've denied you the information, or insisted you ask in the thread so that it's publicly available.

You mean first and only defense, which I also explained. As for SRing you, touché. Only difference is that your experience with mafia games is very far apart from mine. In fact, this is another possible reason for me to have looked up scumhunting tips online, and it's the real one.

And? How is that more suspicious and not less so?

Oh, so I can't dismiss your maths but you can dismiss my accusations? Of course you were comfortable answering it. It was easy. A Townie was asking you to do something that's not scumhunting. You literally couldn't ask for a better opportunity.

That's what that's called.

Ah yes, more called shots from the QT. You know what the difference is here? I'm not trying to excuse Korosu and Karuta's behavior using our QTs. I'm excusing it because they're new to the game, and in that context their actions make sense for Town. Yours, in their own context, do not.

And let's get one thing straight here: Marushi's plan didn't work. Two Town for one Mafiosi is not a fair trade. Reason being, the fewer of us there are, the closer the Mafia naturally approaches parity. Each Townie lynched matters exponentially more than each Mafiosi. We need our numbers, and I am not going to play slaughtering lamb for a plan that didn't work the first time. I'm pretty sure NEITHER of my Lovers are Town, so our odds are even WORSE now.

Why would you not just say so outright, then? Why leave even the slightest chance of ambiguity? You're the one who pushed us to reveal our Lovers, yet you couldn't follow your own example? Why?

 

But if they aren't found in Nova, they can't be found in mine because I'm with Karuta. Mish is either loverless or connected to Kelly. If so, should we be lynching Mish then?

There are 7 people left, 3 are Mafia and 4 are Town, if we're even with the Mafia does that mean we lose? Because in that case Nova is still the better option lol.

Also post confuses me because it's almost like you're not sure of your own alignment. Like, when you say there's a chance of a red being found among Midnight, you either mean yourself or her. If you're unsure of her then what gives reason for that, because both of you should be sure it doesn't lie with you if both of you are indeed town. Right?



From the way Judge and Nova are both currently interacting, I'm actually thinking that they're both town elbowing in one another.

If they are, other then Midnight, the Mafia would have to be Mish, Karuta, and Korosu, which means we STILL need to lynch Nova because then we would be down two.

 

Be that as it may, you're going to have to decide who to trust. Because Judge and I are both vouching for our own Lovers' innocence while scumreading each other's. If any of us are lynched today, Town dies no matter what. Judge/Midnight are the least dangerous play for us right now.

 

But if they're both Town, we're going to lose. Probability wise it would be better to lynch you to get Karuta and Korosu, wouldn't you agree?